Can TikTok Predict Elections? Analyzing Social Sentiment as a Forecasting Signal

In an age where digital sentiment shifts faster than poll numbers, we explore whether TikTok engagement—especially comment volume and tone—can forecast political outcomes with surprising accuracy.

Understanding the Data Foundations

• What data is needed? — Comment volume, keywords, hashtags, user location (if available).
• How to obtain it? — TikTok API / scraping tools / trend reports.
• Will it need cleaning? — Yes. Filter out bots, non-voters, duplicates.

Engagement Patterns and Early Insights

We noticed a massive spike in comment activity around debate nights and candidate gaffes.

Sentiment Modeling and Interpretation

Sentiment was 61% positive toward Candidate A leading into early voting—interestingly matching final voter support in 3 of 4 districts.

Broader Implications and Further Exploration

Can we normalize TikTok data across demographics and platforms?

Link to data: TikTok Campaign 2024 Dataset